Back from London, Mets host Marlins for three (2024)

Coming off a series split in London, the Mets (28-36) return home from their trip abroad with the third-worst record in the National League and an opportunity to get right back into the Wild Card mix over the course of their next six games. The bar is low, and the team couldn’t find much weaker opposition than the Marlins (22-43), owners of the worst record in the National League.

The last time the Mets faced the Marlins was just a few weeks ago, and the Mets botched that opportunity, losing two of three games in Miami. Over their last nine games, however, they’re 6-3, having split a four-game series with the Diamondbacks, swept a three-game series with the Nationals, and split the aforementioned pair of games in London with the very good Phillies.

With that, the Mets are 3.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot and 4.0 back of the second spot. The Padres—who come to Queens this weekend—lead this illustrious pack of baseball teams with a 35-35 record. At 33-34, the Giants hold the third spot for now, and between them in the Mets are the Cubs, Reds, Cardinals, Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Nationals.

So there’s still plenty of work ahead of the Mets if they are to be taken seriously in that mess of a playoff race. If they were to take care of business against the Marlins over these three games, that would set them up for a relatively big series over the weekend against San Diego.

Since the last time these two teams played one another, not much about the Marlins has changed. The Mets will see two of the three same starting pitchers that they saw in the series in Miami. The Marlins still have a very bad offense that’s averaged 3.58 runs scored per game, the third-lowest rate in baseball. And they remain bad at run prevention, as they’ve given up 5.09 runs per game, the third-highest rate in baseball.

Over the past two weeks, Josh Bell has been red hot with a .400/.405/.625 line and a 187 wRC+. You may remember that he hit a big home run against the Mets in that series in Miami. Jesús Sánchez and Jake Burger have been hitting well lately, too, for what it’s worth.

Jet lag will be something of a question for the Mets as they had just one day off yesterday to get back on local time. Despite Pete Alonso’s declaration that jet lag is a choice, it’s a real thing, even for professional athletes. Players are much more regular time zone-changers than the average person, but the five-hour difference between New York and London is a bigger change than any domestic series.

Still, anything less than a sweep of the Marlins in this series would be disappointing given the Mets’ relatively good stretch coming into it. But this is baseball, and we all know that such things are far from guaranteed.

Tuesday, June 11: Tylor Megill vs. Jesús Luzardo at 7:10 PM EDT on SNY

Megill (2024): 21.0 IP, 24 K, 9 BB, 1 HR, 3.00 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 78 ERA-

Megill’s most recent start was the worst of the four he’s made thus far in 2024, as he gave up five runs—four earned—in five innings against the Nationals. The Mets went on to win the game, at least, and his overall number on the season are still very good. Here’s hoping this start looks more like the very good ones he had against the Dodgers and Guardians.

Luzardo (2024): 56.0 IP, 52 K, 18 BB, 7 HR, 5.30 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 131 ERA-

In 2022, his first full season in Miami, Luzardo really turned a corner after struggling in the early years of his major league career. From the start of that season through the end of the 2023 season, he had a 3.48 ERA and a 3.40 FIP, firmly establishing himself as a good major league starter. This year, however, he’s seen his velocity drop slightly and his strikeout rate drop significantly. That combination hasn’t worked well for him through ten starts.

Wednesday, June 12: David Peterson vs. Braxton Garrett at 7:10 PM EDT on SNY

Peterson (2024): 11.2 IP, 5 K, 3 BB, 1 HR, 3.09 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 80 ERA-

In two starts since returning from a long stint on the injured list as he recovered from hip surgery, Peterson has pitched relatively well despite the fact that he’s barely striking anyone out. His walk rate is much lower than it was over the past two seasons, but he probably needs to start striking out more batters very soon if he’s to keep his ERA in the threes.

Garrett (2024): 26.1 IP, 24 K, 4 BB, 2 HR, 5.81 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 143 ERA-

Coming off a breakout year in which he finished with a 3.66 ERA in 159.2 innings, Garrett missed time early this year because of injury and has struggled in his first five starts of the year. His velocity and strikeout rate are the same as and very similar to his 2023 numbers, respectively. But he’s had an awful time pitching with runners on base, as he’s stranded just 58.5 percent of baserunners.

Thursay, June 13: Luis Severino vs. Roddery Muñoz at 7:10 PM EDT on SNY

Severino (2024): 72.0 IP, 58 K, 27 BB, 5 HR, 3.25 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 84 ERA-

Having been pretty average over his five starts leading into the one he made against the Nationals last week, Severino threw a gem in that one. In eight innings, he gave up just one run, struck out four, didn’t walk anyone, and scattered seven hits. Among 74 qualified starting pitchers in baseball, he ranks 30th in ERA.

Muñoz (2024): 19.2 IP, 22 K, 11 BB, 8 HR, 5.95 ERA, 7.88 FIP, 147 ERA-

A longtime member of the Braves’ organization, Muñoz was designated for assignment by Atlanta last summer before appearing in a major league game for them. The Nationals claimed him off waivers, and the Pirates did the same following the 2023 season. Shortly after that, Pittsburgh traded him to the Marlins for cash considerations, and this year, the 24-year-old made his major league debut. Things really haven’t gone well in the early going, as he’s struggled with walks and has a sky-high home run rate. And he’s rocking a 5.95 ERA despite only having allowed a .205 BABIP and stranded 89.3 percent of the baserunners he’s allowed.