Predicting When Each Rookie NFL Quarterback Will Make His First Start in 2024 (2024)

In 15 of the last 16 NFL seasons, at least one rookie quarterback has started in Week 1. The lone exception was the 2022 campaign, although nine different rookies eventually started games that season, including Kenny Pickett and Brock Purdy.

In 2024, it's safe to say we'll see plenty of rookie quarterbacks leading their squads. Eleven were drafted in total, including six in the top 12.

When should you expect to see each rookie make his first start? After the NFL released every team's schedule Wednesday, we've come up with some educated guesses.

After selecting Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, the Chicago Bears wasted little time declaring him as their starter.

"No conversation," head coach Matt Eberflus told reporters earlier this month. "He's the starter."

The Bears cleared the way for Williams by trading former starter Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a conditional 2025 sixth-round pick prior to the draft. Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien and Austin Reed are the only other quarterbacks on the Bears roster, and none of them were drafted.

Barring injury, expect to see Williams under center when the Bears kick off the 2024 regular season at home against the Tennessee Titans on Sept. 8.

Predicted first start: Week 1 vs. Titans

Whereas Caleb Williams already seems to be the Bears' locked-in starter, No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels still has to earn the job. Both Daniels and Washington Commanders head coach Dan Quinn have already said as much.

That might seem hard to believe considering his draft slot. However, Marcus Mariota is a capable alternative if the Commanders decide they want to ease Daniels into action.

The Commanders signed the 30-year-old Mariota to a one-year, $6 million contract this offseason. He could potentially serve as a stopgap, much as he did with the Atlanta Falcons in 2022 before Desmond Ridder supplanted him late in the season.

It's tempting to predict that Commanders will push off Daniels' debut until a somewhat soft home opener against the New York Giants in Week 2. But Daniels has drawn rave reviews thus far, so it wouldn't be surprising if he starts the Commanders' season opener against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Predicted first start: Week 1 at Buccaneers

The New England Patriots are likely aware that they aren't going to be Super Bowl contenders this year at the start of the Drake Maye era. Despite spending the No. 3 overall pick on Maye, they might decide to slow-play the start of his NFL career.

The Patriots signed veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett to a one-year, $8 million deal this offseason after he started 11 games for the Cleveland Browns last year. The 31-year-old is currently a -250 favorite to be the Patriots' starter in Week 1, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Maye had two strong seasons as a starter at North Carolina, but he's a year younger than Caleb Williams and two years younger than Jayden Daniels. He might need more time to acclimate to the NFL than those two. Plus, he's not exactly surrounded by an overwhelming supporting cast in New England.

The Patriots open with a tough run against the Bengals, Seahawks, Jets, 49ers and Dolphins. They might pivot to Maye after that, ahead of a Week 6 home game against reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans.

Predicted first start: Week 6 vs. Texans

After losing Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons in free agency, the Minnesota Vikings signed Sam Darnold to a one-year, $10 million deal. One month later, they traded up one spot during the draft to select Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

While McCarthy may be the Vikings' long-term answer under center, Darnold is a capable quarterback who can keep a team afloat in the right spot. Minnesota has a supporting cast that includes Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones, so whichever player starts under center will have plenty of help.

Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick from the 2018 draft, can hold down the fort early while McCarthy gets acclimated to the NFL. After all, the 21-year-old started only 28 games at Michigan, and the Vikes run into the San Francisco 49ers (whom Darnold knows well) and the New York Jets in two of their first five games.

After that, they have a bye week and a home game against the Detroit Lions. That feels like the natural spot for McCarthy's regular-season debut.

Predicted first start: Week 7 vs. Lions

Aside from 12th overall pick Bo Nix, the only other quarterbacks on the Denver Broncos roster are Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham.

Can you really see Broncos head coach Sean Payton starting either of those guys over Nix in Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks?

That seems extremely unlikely, especially considering that Nix started an FBS-record 61 games in college and enters the league as a 24-year-old rookie.

Wilson has talent, but he didn't pan out in New York, and he's no more familiar with Payton's offense than Nix is. Nix is a great fit for said offense, and he'll likely get the green light right out of the gate against a Seattle defense that ranked 28th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) in 2023.

Predicted first start: Week 1 at Seahawks

Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons just signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal this offseason. Penix will only start if the 35-year-old gets injured or if the team's Week 18 meeting with the Carolina Panthers has no playoff implications.

Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints: Derek Carr is the Saints' clear starter. But if the Saints' season blows up before the home stretch, we could get some looks at Rattler, as they wrap up against the Giants, Commanders, Packers, Raiders and Bucs from Week 14 onward.

Jordan Travis, New York Jets: Even if Aaron Rodgers goes down again, there's a good chance the desperate-to-compete Jets would make a trade or start Tyrod Taylor before rolling with a rookie fifth-round pick under center.

Joe Milton III, New England Patriots: We already talked about Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye, but Bailey Zappe might also wind up ahead of sixth-round pick Milton in New England. It'd be shocking if he were to take any snaps in 2024.

Devin Leary, Baltimore Ravens: Similar situation as the Jets with Rodgers and Travis here. If something were to happen to Lamar Jackson, Baltimore would likely look elsewhere or go with Josh Johnson. The sixth-rounder Leary presumably wouldn't get a shot.

Michael Pratt, Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love would really have to bomb after a marvelous run to conclude his first season as a starter in Green Bay. And even then (or in the case of injury), Sean Clifford or someone else who isn't currently on the roster might take priority over a seventh-round rookie.